The week spanning 31st March to the 6th of April marks two instances of mass mobilisation, on the basis of very simple directives transmitted across low-information contexts. On 31st March 1146, Bernard of Clairvaux preached in Vezelay for participants in a Second Crusade. This speech is famous
for the phrase Deus Vult, which is popular in memes and some violent extremist manifestos of our time. ‘God wills it’ can be exploited as a moral or defensive basis for war on the world, near and far.
In 1994, as Radio Rwanda played classical music to accompany a stay-home notice, it informed Rwandans that the President’s returning plane had been shot down. Both aspects of message delivery were meant to maintain calm. Another radio station, known as Hutu Power, suggested exterminating
dangerous and immoral ‘cockroaches’. The service played a coordinating role in the violent endeavour to get rid of all Tutsis – approximately 14% of the population.
The readings for CTCB State of Play Newsletter No 9 have been selected to draw attention to some future challenges in security and by non-state threats. The Rwandan genocide, border and diaspora risks, and coercion versus influence in power outcomes, are themes covered. The case studies for
Theme 1 and 2 can help in imagining the outcome of Myanmar’s military coup. With their new political capital Naypyidaw (built 2004), the government sits tight far from urban protests, in a city built for surveillance, similar to Egypt’s New Administrative Capital.
Churches in colonial Rwanda were highly politicised structures (Longman, 2001) that ordered power relations and ethnic distinction in society. For the current situation in Mozambique (See Hughes, 2021), perhaps similar incentivised authority organisations (and the Deus Vult factor) offered by
ISIS-linked combat groups is what is keeping participation and lethality high. Several elite trainers and private military contractors have been hired over the years to counter the insurgencies – they failed. In Rwandan churches of the 1900s, though membership was fluid, property and administration
were fixed and localised. By contrast, the flexible, opportunistic networks of ‘Political Islam’ in Mozambique have adopted the French & Arab martial culture of the audacious raid to tactically overwhelm state and foreign security forces.
What has been quite interesting about this week’s articles is the demonstration of how much attitudes and perspectives can differ, with civil rights and national security voices often at odds. Also represented is the data and legislative appetites of contemporary politicians – centralised control is
favoured, rather than address of grievance, or use of irregular tactics. It is difficult to know or test whether this strategy is inefficient (or most effective, or counter-productive), but at the very least it will remain controversial. At the very worst, by virtue of mechanical dehumanisation, it could fuel
widespread resentment and anti-state radicalisation.
This is assuming it is unpaired with war via other means, e.g. discreet behavioural modification techniques. Some predict a new age of the psy-op, and ramping up of international influence campaigns to destabilise competitors from the inside. Thankfully, soon there will probably be a surveillance
app for that.
It isn’t a standard component of counter-terrorism to use music to achieve emotional and behavioural objectives (at least not yet, eyes on DARPA. But Aristotle did it first). However, if you would like a feel good story to unwind after this week’s readings, as well as contemplate the potential of brain
science in achieving the trust and compliance of non-native speakers, the editor suggests:
“Russian ship played classical music to rescue entrapped belugas”, a Blog post by A. Remili, (2020, October 16). https://whalescientists.com/russian-ship-entrapped-belugas/
Or some good news, and about the interplay between genocide, militia movements, terror financing, and wildlife: Gilliland, H. C. (2021, April 1). Elephants return to conflict-ridden national park. National Geographic.
Https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/elephants-return-to-virunga-national-park
Credit for excerpts used here on Rwanda and Aristotle:
T. Seminega’s book, No Greater Love, published in 2019 by GM&A Publishing. Available at: https://www.rwanda-nogreaterlove.com/open-the-floodgates-of-hate
Golby, J. & Liebert, H. (2021). Keeping Norms Normal: Ancient Perspectives on Norms in Civil-Military Relations. Texas National Security Review. https://tnsr.org/2021/04/keeping-norms-normal-ancient-perspectives-on-norms-in-civil-military-relations/